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Mortgage Market Report – 5/30/12: History in the Making!!

This mortgage market report will provide the data and insight from trading on Wall Street. Interest rates are derived from the yield on mortgage backed securities (bonds). When the pricing of mortgage backed securities (MBS) goes up you can expect lower interest rates. When MBS pricing goes down, expect higher pricing on interest rates for home mortgages. 

When fear becomes the motivating factor for buying treasuries, technical levels just don’t  matter.  We are making history today as the 10 year note trades at an all time low yield of 1.634%.  The previous low was set in 1945 at 1.67%.  Folks, this is a money grab as deposits exit European banks as quick as you can get to the teller’s window.  Spanish banks are on the brink, in dire need of a capital injection from the ECB or the European Rescue fund.  Greece cannot figure out what kind of a government to create and Germany is saying no to everything.  Makings of a Lehman type moment.  Stateside, Pending Home Sales fell off a cliff, down 5.5%.  Not even record low mortgage rates can prop up that number.  Help wanted online ads fell 45K while companies like RIM and HP announce layoffs coming to the tune of 30K.  Stocks feel the stress, off 150 points on the big board.  Commodities are producing waterfall looking charts as oil breaks below $88.00 a barrel (see chart below), gold sinks towards $1500.00 an ounce, and the CRB Index (Commodities Research Bureau) falls to a level not seen since the middle of last year.  Goes to show you how quick this cat can move.  One day we’re talking about inflation, next day it’s all about deflation.  If there were ever a time to buy a home or refinance a loan, that time is now.  Record low affordability coupled with record low mortgage rates makes real estate look very attractive.  I believe we’ll look back at this period of time in 5 years or so and go wow, remember when ………  Don’t let this bus leave the station without you.  Technically, we have a channel breakout .  This has been accomplished by trading above the upper regression line that has capped the market all year.  English translation, we are now trading a rally in “no man’s land”.  Markets like this are particularly tricky to handicap.  Reason being is that we don’t have a good fundamental reason for being this low in yield or on mortgage rates.  We’re here because of fear.  Take advantage of these levels given the reason I just mentioned and the fact that we have a high profile piece of data Friday (Employment Report).  Herding cats my friends, the market is like herding cats!

Scott Eggen                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SVP Capital Markets

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